It has long been clear that China will one day overtake the United
States as the world’s largest economy, but new figures released by the
World Bank indicate that that could happen as soon as this year.
(The International Monetary Fund, which unlike the World Bank does
not take into account the variation in the purchasing power of a single
unit of currency between countries, gives that occurrence a longer time
frame. In other words, the difference is just a matter of which
indicator they are looking at.)
“We still see China at 7.5 and continuing to grow, probably at the
slightly reduced pace over time in the next five years or so because the
country's developing so much,” Lagarde said.
The fact that Chinese growth will slow, she said, “is not a bad idea,
actually, because the focus from the Chinese authorities would be to
produce more quality growth than quantity growth.”
“We are not of those that believe that China will have a hard landing,” on the idea that growth will suddenly collapse.
The IMF has a “really solid partnership and dialogue” with the
Chinese government, she said, and praised their efforts to focus on
domestic consumption, rather than investment and exports, as the engine
of the future Chinese economy.
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