The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has approved the
second part of its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), titled Climate Change
2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, at the IPCC meeting in
Yokohama, Japan. The key message of the report is that climate change
poses serious risks to the well-being of nature and people all over the
world. The observed effects of climate change have an impact on people's
health, land and marine ecosystems, water supplies, and people's
livelihoods, from the polar regions to the tropics and from small
islands to continents. Poor countries that lack the means to adapt to
these changes will suffer the worst.
"Despite
our efforts, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and
the climate will change. We must strengthen Finland's ability to manage
the risks related to climate change and adapt to it," emphasises
Permanent Secretary Jaana Husu-Kallio from the Ministry of Agriculture
and Forestry.
Professor Tim Carter from the Finnish Environment
Institute (SYKE) is one of the lead writers of the now published report.
He hopes that decision-makers will take the information produced by
researchers seriously: "If adequate measures to reduce emissions are not
taken, the fear is that some of the changes resulting from climate
change will push us over an edge after which development can no longer
be reversed. This kind of threshold could be, for example, the
irreversible melting of Greenland's glaciers."
Europe's glaciers dwindling and permafrost melting
"Climate
change impacts Europe in many ways. The ice sheets of the Alps and
other mountain ranges are dwindling and an increasing portion of the
permafrost is melting. In the northern coniferous forest belt, including
Finland, the growth of forests is accelerating, and some species are
growing more abundant, while others decline. The risk of forest fires is
also increasing in southern Europe," Tim Carter explains about the
regional effects of climate change.
In Finland, the effects of
climate change may weaken the water quality of water systems, as the
ground remains unfrozen for longer periods of time in the autumn and
winter. Water protection efforts will have to adapt to increased
run-off, erosion, and nutrition loads. This will result in new
challenges, particularly in agricultural water protection. The warming
of Finland's climate is already evident in Finnish fauna; birds, for
example, are migrating earlier in the spring and later in the autumn.
Food shortages expected
The
estimated future crop yields will not be enough to feed the world in
2015. "The climate has already changed and affected crop yields. The
effects observed have been local, and for the most part negative. The
most notable effects have had to do with extreme weather events, such as
heavy rains, heat waves, and draught."
"Crop yields and food
production per capita have generally improved over the last 40 years,
due to the development of farming culture and technology, which has
resulted in better fertilisers, better crop strains and more efficient
production. However, climate change will result in more extreme weather,
draught, heat, and heavy rains. In northern areas, global warming will
initially also present benefits, such as longer growth periods," says
Senior Researcher Kaija Hakala from MTT Agrifood Research Finland.
Severe and wide-ranging global changes
Warming,
acidification, and decreasing oxygen levels will change marine life.
Warming has already resulted in plankton, fish, and invertebrate
communities shifting northwards. In northern marine areas, the diversity
and biomass of fish populations have increased. Water warming has also
altered the distribution of large species of fish found in the open sea.
As marine and coastal ecosystems change, their diversity and the
products and services derived from them will weaken. Those who depend on
coastal areas for their livelihoods, such as fishing communities in the
tropics and arctic areas, will suffer.
Rising sea levels,
coastal flooding and tidal waves cause danger to life and risk of
injury, and hinder livelihoods in low-lying coastal areas and in small
island nations. These problems will impact poor population groups in
particular. In some areas, flooding will also pose problems to urban
populations.
Agricultural trade will grow more difficult and
earnings from it will decrease due to the insufficient availability of
drinking and irrigation water and the decreasing productivity of
farming. These problems will have a particularly severe impact on poor
farmers in dry regions.
Extreme weather events will hinder
important basic services, such as water, electricity and health and
rescue services. Mortality, morbidity and other adverse effects will
increase during heat waves, particularly among vulnerable urban
population groups and those who work outdoors.
Adaptation required in addition to mitigation
Countries
all over the world have begun to develop climate change adaptation
plans and strategies. Finland has been a pioneer in this regard, and
Finland's reformed adaptation strategy is currently being widely
circulated for comments. In Europe, the EU's adaptations strategy has
led to adaptation planning being incorporated into, for example, the use
and management of coastal areas and water systems and the risk
management of natural disasters.
"Currently we are adapting
mainly to past events when we should be adapting to future threats.
However, it is good that governments, companies and communities are
gaining experience in adaptation, since this experience can be utilised
to better help society, and more ambitiously adapt to changes," says
Chris Field, the Co-chair of IPCC Working Group II.
IPCC gathers information to support decision-making
The
IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report consists of the now published report
along with a report on the state of climate, which was published last
September in Stockholm, and a report on climate change mitigation, which
will be finalised at a meeting in Berlin from 7 to 11 April. A summary
of the individual reports will be completed in autumn 2014.
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was called together by the
World Meteorological Organization WMO and the UN's environmental
programme UNEP. The goal of the panel is to support decision-making
related to climate policy. Its tasks include assessing scientific
knowledge related to climate change and its effects, as well as various
climate change mitigation measures. During 2010-2013, some 813 writers
took part in drawing up the report, five of them from Finland.
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